Will Prices Keep Falling? What I’m Watching in the Redlands After the Latest Rate Rise

November 2026

Opinion only, not financial advice.

The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.85% on 3 November, its fifth rise this year. Everyone is asking: when does this end? Nobody knows, but here’s what I’m watching in the Redlands.

Where we are

• Redlands medians are holding above $1 million so far. October medians from realestate.com.au:

Cleveland $1.3m, Capalaba $1.1m, Alexandra Hills $1.075m. But medians look back over a long period, so they lag the market.

• Brisbane values fell 2% in October and 6.1% over three months. Nationally, values are 6.7% below the March peak, with the capitals falling at the fastest pace in 40 years (Cotality).

What I’m seeing

These are the conversations we’re having across the industry. Some buyers who would normally make an offer are stepping back, unsure where rates are headed.

It isn’t everyone, but it keeps coming up when I chat with agents and buyers.

A few have missed out because finance approved a couple of months ago no longer stacked up.

More off-market homes are coming to the open market. Sellers are testing the market too.

Agents I know, locally and in Brisbane, say that when a home doesn’t sell, owners are choosing to rent and hold. Agents are adjusting their approach, and confidence has taken a hit.

My forecast (opinion only)

I expect more owners to be forced to sell. Cotality says most Brisbane owners likely hold equity buffers, so the pressure falls on recent buyers who borrowed to their limit.

Life keeps happening: jobs, families and separations still force sales.

Buyers are likely to wait for a clear RBA signal, which Cotality doesn’t expect before the second half of 2027.

Three signs I’m watching

• Unemployment: the trigger economists flag for forced sales.

• Listings: owners withdrawing to rent and hold, or forced to sell.

• The rate path: if the RBA pauses, confidence could steady.

Dates that matter

• 11 November: ABS lending data

• Early December: Cotality’s price update

• 8 December: RBA’s final decision of the year

What it means for you

• Buyers: it isn’t all doom and gloom. There’s more choice, including homes that were previously off market, and more room to negotiate. How long this lasts, I don’t know. Stress-test your repayments against further rises.

• Sellers: strategy is key. Understand where your home genuinely sits in the market.

Thinking of buying or selling? Talk to me at Tafolo Realty.